Return of Current Holdings

Current holdings, bought in 2019, have a return of

15.73%


Volatility

The return of our portfolio is volatile on day-to-day basis, but is consistent annually.

Disclaimer

This website is an information service only. The information provided herein does not constitute as an offer to buy or sell securities. We are not investment advisors. The service is not based upon individual needs of viewers.The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. Please carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.

AplusStocks.com associates trade stocks and options for our own accounts. We also research on other trading systems. We reserve the right to sell or purchase any stocks or options for our own accounts in our discretion.

Past performances do not guarantee future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown on this site. You are cautioned that there is no universally accepted method for analyzing financial instruments. Some of the very early records were not actually traded. Hence they were hypothetical trades. Although we do not provide any information on futures, the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, www.cftc.gov) provides an excellent description of the limitations of hypothetical trades:

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.

All material provided is believed to be reliable, but AplusStocks.com makes no warranty of any kind, expressed or implied. All material is provided "As Is".

What we have achieved - You can verify because we post here and email before every trade for free
This site presents one of our stock trading systems and a long-term stock market indicator. We update daily for individual stocks and updated weekly for the market indicator. The chart below shows the annual returns that the system achieved in the past 12 years.

The portfolio emphasizes on high return stocks, usually around 50 stocks on the rise, and is designed to catch bursts of fast growth. It is volatile and could trail SP500 from time to time. Long term, its volatility is rewarded with high returns.

high return from 2004 to 2018


We post every buy or sell the system generates a day before it is traded. Total holding includes about 50 stocks on the rise. We update on every trading day. If there are any stock buy sell signals, we post them and send out by an email. If there is not any buy or sell that day, we say so on this site.


Keep a record by subscribing to our free email notices. The record will confirm what we can do for individual investors.


How we achieved it
Momentum investing is a powerful methodology. Through research, we found it has one major shortcoming:

When stocks appear on a momentum list, many of them are often too hot already to have room for further upside move.  One typical example is the IBD100 list from Investor's Business Daily. Stocks in the list usually have high growth potential. When published in the list, those stocks' price may have a little room to grow further but are near end of the cycle.

We developed a methodology to select high return stocks whose price momentum surpasses analysts’ earnings forecasts, ratings and commentaries. In general, our 50 stocks are on the rise, even further the price of the stocks we choose moves up faster than Wall Street expects.

That is counter intuitive. The method carries more risk from the valuation point of view. But it works. Here is our reasoning:

Wall Street analysts could upgrade stock ratings if its price keeps moving up. In an ideal world, if the stock price is higher than its valuation, it should be a sell and not be upgraded. The fact is that the valuation is never known for sure.

One of the valuation methods is estimating future free cash flows of the company and discounted back to the present value with a specified discount rate. The future free cash flows are not certain. The discount rate is trickier. Business situation changes in the future.

Other valuation methods are not perfect either. For example, the comparing method determines a company’s value based on industry or other similar companies’ valuation. For example, in 1990s, analysts thought Gateway was similar to Dell because both were direct retailers of PC. They turned out to be way different.

Valuation is more an art than a science. When a stock's price is much higher than analysts’ valuation for an extended period, those analysts are in hot water. Some of them are scared to be wrong and want to move the rating to kind of matching the price. Even if the move is proved to be wrong, at least some others are wrong along with them. This would give them excuses.

With the price momentum, if those analysts’ sentiment moves in a positive direction and they upgrade the stocks, usually the stock price moves up fast because some institutions have to buy stocks based on ratings. When most analysts agree that the company has a great potential, or when stock price performance does not match the sentiment, it is our time to sell. Even the analysts can influence, we believe that the big players with money have more voting power on stock prices than the analysts.


Additional Portfolio Optimization
High risk positions usually bring high returns. Mutual funds study portfolio optimization in a great deal. We seek high returns of each position. At the same time, we maximize the chances that the volatilities of the stocks cancel each other. Our portfolio usually includes 40 to 60 stocks. On some days, one of the positions may lose 10% or more, but overall portfolio still gains for that day.


Prove it to yourself
The site is completely open. Check for yourself and click

here for our current portfolio


Market Indicator
We also developed a stock market indicator for more than 20 countries. It has proved to be very effective for many years. Wealth is built by not losing big. The indicator is updated weekly. Please click the following chart to see more.


US stock indicator, point to world stock market indicator, from Asia such as China, India and Japan, to Europe such as UK, Germany, French, to America such as Cananda, Brazil and Mexico.

Who we are
This site was started to serve as a tool to communicate stock ideas between friends and classmates after we graduated from a top MBA program.

We are finance professionals and mathematicians. We spent days and nights researching and modeling stock markets since 1995. Our team leader holds MBA from the University of Michigan Ross School of Business (BusinessWeek ranked it No. 7 in the U.S.). Another member holds MBA from University of Chicago Booth School of Business.